Incumbent parties almost always lose seats in midterm elections
Historical data shows that the president's political party faces consistent electoral setbacks in off-year votes, with only two successful exceptions in four decades.
By Jessica Abebe ·
The president's political party typically loses seats in midterm elections, a pattern that defines most recent off-year votes in the United States. While the president does not appear on the ballot, voters often use these contests to judge the administration's performance.
Donald Trump's party faced a major setback in 2018. On November 6 of that year, Republicans lost 41 seats in the House of Representatives, handing control of that chamber to Democrats. In the Senate, Republicans gained two seats, securing a narrow majority.
This trend spans multiple administrations. Barack Obama's party suffered losses in both 2010 and 2014. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats. Four years later, they dropped 13 House seats and nine Senate seats. Joe Biden's party also lost ground in 2022, surrendering nine House seats while gaining one Senate seat, which resulted in a slim Democratic majority in the upper chamber.
Ronald Reagan, despite high popularity ratings, saw his party lose seats in both 1982 and 1986. In the last forty years, only two presidents have seen their parties gain seats during midterms: Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
Clinton's party initially suffered a severe loss in 1994, dropping 54 House seats and nine Senate seats. Democrats never regained legislative control during that term. However, in 1998, following Clinton's impeachment, the party gained four House seats and kept all its Senate seats. This result was viewed as a victory for Democrats, even though they did not retake control of Congress.
George W. Bush holds the distinction of being the most recent president whose party gained seats in a midterm. In 2002, Republicans added eight House seats and two Senate seats in the wake of the September 11 attacks. That success did not last. In 2006, the political cost of the Iraq War led to a loss of 32 House seats, reducing the Republican tally to 199. They also lost six Senate seats, ceding the majority to Democrats.
