Three Senate races could shift congressional control on election night

Election Day is approaching, and the outcome in three specific states will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Political analysts are closely monitoring contests in Texas, Michigan, and Ohio, where the results could alter the legislative majority for the next two years.

In Texas, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Paxton secured the Republican nomination after receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump, which allowed him to defeat incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Despite his acquittal on corruption charges following an impeachment by the state House, Paxton faces a competitive field. A win for Talarico would mark the first time in over three decades that a Democrat holds a U.S. Senate seat from Texas.

Michigan presents an open seat where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a public health administrator, is running against Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. The campaign has centered on El-Sayed’s Muslim faith, with President Trump accusing him of extremist ties. El-Sayed has rejected these claims, stating his primary allegiance is to the U.S. Constitution. On Sunday, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), a former primary opponent, withdrew her support for El-Sayed and endorsed Rogers.

In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Husted was appointed to the seat when J.D. Vance became vice president. Brown is seeking a return to the Senate after losing his 2024 reelection bid to Bernie Moreno. The winner of this contest will serve the remaining two years of the term previously held by Vance.

These races represent the final test for national party leaders as they seek to maintain or regain control of the upper chamber of Congress.