Record Arab Knesset Gains Leave Netanyahu Bloc Facing a Mathematical Stalemate

The polls closed on Tuesday, but the arithmetic of Israeli politics has shifted in a way that neither major camp fully accepts.

Exit projections indicate that the Joint List and Ra'am will win a combined 17 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This figure represents a record for Arab-led representation. Current partial results place Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at 54 seats. The opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot holds 49 seats. Neither group has secured the 61 seats required for a legislative majority on its own.

The standoff centers on whether the opposition will partner with the Arab lists to reach that threshold. Eisenkot’s bloc could theoretically reach 66 seats if it includes the 17 Arab seats. However, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have rejected a formal partnership, citing a lack of shared values. Netanyahu told supporters on Tuesday that relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties would be a shame and a disgrace. Eisenkot has not said whether Ra'am meets his specific criteria, which include recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and committing to national service for all citizens.

Observers describe the political veto as a structural barrier. Honaida Ghanam, director general of the Palestinian Forum for Israeli Studies in Ramallah, told Al Jazeera that the refusal is rooted in a racist structure that treats Arab citizens as illegitimate partners. Ahmed Najar, a Palestinian analyst, argued that Eisenkot has imposed loyalty tests that render his path to power arithmetically impossible without Arab support. He noted that more than one-fifth of the citizenry is being treated as inherently illegitimate by the opposition.

Negotiations are moving quietly despite public rejections. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has signalled willingness to join an Eisenkot government if his party handles internal security matters. Abbas also placed Jewish lawmaker Yoav Segalovitz in the number two spot on Ra'am’s slate. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, stated on Wednesday that his party is ready to take responsibility for bringing down the far-right coalition. Ahmad Tibi, a fellow Joint List leader, said the bloc was extending its hand to the opposition alliance.

The opposition must also persuade other partners. Naftali Bennett of the Together alliance, currently in third place, said he now wants only Zionist parties in government. Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu also remains a key prospective partner. Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, urged allies to drop their refusal to cooperate with Arab parties. In 2021, Ra'am’s support was vital to forming the Bennett-Lapid government, and Arab parties have backed governments from outside under Yitzhak Rabin.

Ghanam outlined four possible outcomes: a new election, an opposition minority government backed from outside by Arab parties, defections from the opposition to Netanyahu’s bloc, or a national unity government. She identified the resilience of Netanyahu’s camp as the election’s most telling result. Najar said the reluctance of opposition parties reveals a deeper problem in how the state defines its democratic character.