Israel votes: 7.3 million citizens decide government's future
The first general election since the October 2023 attacks is set for Tuesday, with polls showing a fragmented parliament and a stalemate between two major blocs.
By Jessica Abebe ·
Israelis will vote in national legislative elections on Tuesday, marking the first general election since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023. The vote will determine the composition of the Knesset, the country's parliament, which has a term of four years. A party must clear a 3.25 percent threshold to gain a seat in the 120-member body.
Two main coalitions are competing for control of the government. The pro-Netanyahu bloc includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, the far-right Otzma Yehudi led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, Religious Zionism-Zehut led by Bezalel Smotrich, and ultra-Orthodox parties United Torah Judaism and Shas. The opposition coalition consists of four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot; the Democrats, led by former deputy military chief Yair Golan; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman; and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.
Polling data published before a survey ban took effect on Friday indicates that neither side is currently projected to win the 61 seats required for a majority. A poll by public broadcaster KAN estimates the opposition alliance will win 52 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc will secure 50. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated groups, primarily the two major Arab-led lists: Ra'am and the Joint List. Both major coalitions have stated they are unlikely to join forces with these Arab-led parties at this time.
Key issues in the campaign include accountability for security failures prior to the 2023 attacks, the military exemption status of the ultra-Orthodox community, and judicial reform proposals that critics argue weaken democratic institutions. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, described the election as a final chance for the secular and liberal opposition to restore eroded democratic institutions. Voters are also weighing how the government should proceed with ongoing military conflicts in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon while seeking economic stability.
The election takes place amid increased international scrutiny of Israel. Several allied nations have sanctioned settlements in the West Bank, and many countries have criticized military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. On September 24, dozens of diplomats walked out of a United Nations General Assembly address by Netanyahu, with some booing. The outcome of the vote may influence whether the next government maintains its current international posture or attempts to repair diplomatic ties.
Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years, faces a corruption trial that began in 2019. An electoral defeat would expose him to the legal process, which could lead to a prison sentence if he is convicted. A change in government could also impact the prospects for an inquiry into the October 2023 attacks and affect his standing in relation to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.
Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, including about 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem do not have a vote in this election despite being under Israeli control regarding borders and legal status. Recent polling suggests turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel could reach 60 percent, with most votes going to the Arab lists. Campaigners are aiming for 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades and could help smaller parties meet the entry threshold.
The Central Elections Committee voted last month to bar the Joint List and Ra'am from the race, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court did, however, force Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw from the race following an article in which he called the October 7 attacks an important historical event. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, noted that alienating Arab parties is part of a political strategy that could allow Netanyahu to remain as caretaker prime minister if neither coalition forms a majority.
