Ohio State QB Uncertainty: Jeremiah Smith's Heisman Odds
Smith leads the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns, but a sudden quarterback change threatens his momentum before the final five games.
By Julia Novak ·
Jeremiah Smith has recorded 12 touchdowns in just seven games this season, a rate that has made him the favorite for the Heisman Trophy at every major sportsbook entering Week 9. The Ohio State wide receiver leads the Big Ten in all-time receiving stats and currently trails only Oregon State freshman Jesse Legree in national receiving yards and touchdown totals.
Smith is the primary engine of the Buckeyes' passing attack. He accounts for 43.5% of the team's receiving yards and 54.5% of their receiving touchdowns. Despite being the focal point of defensive game plans, he has maintained this production through the first half of the schedule while most top quarterbacks in the country have struggled.
The situation changed abruptly following Ohio State's game against Indiana. Quarterback Julian Sayin suffered an injury late in that contest and may be done for the season. Sayin had targeted Smith consistently for two years, relying on a deep trust developed through an entire offseason as the undisputed starter. Head coach Ryan Day has not yet decided who will start against USC. The options are freshman Luke Fahey, sophomore Tavien St. Clair, or a split system where both play.
Critics argue the new quarterback situation will harm Smith's chances. A young quarterback will likely prioritize managing the offense and protecting the ball, especially with Ohio State possessing an elite defense. This could lead to a more conservative approach with fewer deep targets for Smith. If Fahey and St. Clair split series, Smith must adjust to two different rhythms, making it harder to establish consistency. There is also a risk that his best performances have already occurred in the first five games, as voters often weigh late-season play heavily. His standout game at Texas, where he caught eight passes for 164 yards, ended in an Ohio State loss due to a late offensive collapse.
Supporters of Smith's candidacy offer a counterargument. They suggest that maintaining high production with a new, unproven quarterback will look even more impressive to voters. Smith does not need to average 140 yards per game to stand out. If he averages 100 yards and a touchdown with Fahey or St. Clair, that level of output would be notable. The directive in the quarterback room was already to find Smith in coverage. A young quarterback may be even more inclined to rely on Smith as a reliable safety valve. Smith is the most attractive target for a new quarterback looking to make his team look good.
The remaining schedule offers specific opportunities for Smith to boost his stats. USC's defense is described as porous, providing a favorable environment for a young quarterback's debut. Oregon has struggled offensively, and while their defense is solid, the offense may falter against Ohio State. Northwestern has been a surprise performer this year but relies on offensive creativity that Smith can disrupt on the perimeter. Nebraska and Michigan round out the schedule, with Michigan typically presenting a defensive challenge.
The competition from Miami may also work in Smith's favor. Wide receivers Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney are likely to split votes. Their only major chance to secure a defining performance is in their November 7 game against Notre Dame. If the Irish win or if Miami's offense slows down, Smith's path to the award becomes clearer. The Heisman voting will take place in December, and the outcome may be determined by how Smith performs in the next five games.
Ohio State plays USC on Saturday. This game is viewed as a critical test for Smith's candidacy. If the team is unwilling to pass the ball against the Trojans, Smith's position as the favorite may weaken. A large performance in this game would solidify his status. The decision on the starting quarterback is expected to be announced before the game.
