Nithya Raman takes early lead in Los Angeles mayoral race

Nithya Raman is currently leading incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the race for Los Angeles mayor, according to vote tallies available in the early morning of Wednesday, November 5. The lead is slight, but analysts note that the direction of the count suggests Raman is gaining ground as late votes arrive.

The initial results on Tuesday evening showed Raman trailing Bass. However, polling data indicates that Raman holds a strong advantage with younger voters. These voters typically cast their ballots later than older demographics. Paul Mitchell, who heads the polling firm PDI, stated that the vote flow is expected to be unidirectional for Raman. He predicted that once she began gaining votes, the trend would not reverse.

Lindsey Horvath, an L.A. County Supervisor who endorsed Raman, declared that Raman would be the next mayor. Estevan Montemayor, who ran an independent expenditure group for Raman, said the race was over. In contrast, Bass expressed confidence at the L.A. County Democratic Party watch party. She noted that counting votes in the city takes time and said she expected to achieve victory based on her campaign work.

The current count mirrors the pattern seen in the June 2 primary. During that election, Spencer Pratt held an early lead over Raman for second place. Raman eventually overtook him five days after the election as late ballots arrived. In the general election, final polling showed Raman and Bass tied at 40 percent support, with 19 percent of voters undecided. A national wave of Democratic victories in congressional races may be influencing local results, adding momentum to Raman’s campaign from the left.

Raman ran with the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America. Her campaign focused on fixing infrastructure issues like potholes and broken streetlights. Bass campaigned on a public safety message aimed at moderates and conservative voters. At her election night event, Raman gave a speech that nearly declared victory but urged supporters to remain calm. She described the city as a place of ingenuity and inclusion, rejecting the idea that hopelessness was the norm.

The race had seemed unlikely at the start of the year. Bass had low approval ratings but faced a field of challengers that included Spencer Pratt and Austin Beutner. Beutner suspended his bid after the death of his daughter. Raman entered the race on the night before the February 7 filing deadline. City Controller Kenneth Mejia joked about the surprise of her entry, comparing it to a last-second basketball shot.

Supporters on both sides remain engaged while the count continues. Joeseph Fuchs, a representative for the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters, pointed to prediction market data on Kalshi showing a 95 percent probability of a Raman win. Alton Reed, a supporter of Bass, said he had knocked on more than 100 doors for the incumbent. He expressed disappointment in the initial results but maintained hope that Bass would prevail. City Councilmember Hugo Soto-Martinez said he felt good about the results and believed a larger coalition would show in the final count.

Raman ended her speech by dancing to Michael Jackson’s “Remember the Time.” She hugged backers and posed for photos. Bass’s supporters at the Loews Hollywood Hotel chanted for four more years. The vote count continues as officials process remaining ballots.