Climate Talks: COP31 Opens in Turkey as 1.5C Threshold Is Breached
Negotiations begin Monday in Antalya, Turkey, amid rising energy costs and the absence of the United States.
By Julia Novak ·
United Nations climate negotiations officially opened Monday in Antalya, Turkey, marking the start of the 31st Conference of Parties, or COP31. The summit begins against a backdrop of record-breaking temperatures and volatile energy markets. Leaders will deliver opening speeches before delegates move to the substantive work of implementing previous climate pledges.
The U.N. adjusted its long-standing goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius earlier this year because global temperatures are exceeding that limit. The European climate agency Copernicus announced Friday that October 2026 was the hottest October on record. The agency stated that 2026 is virtually certain to end as the second year to exceed the 1.5 degree threshold, following 2024. Current warming levels sit at 1.4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, with projections now pointing toward 2.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
Energy security is a central theme at the talks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran caused fossil fuel prices to spike. This shock has forced nations to rethink their energy systems. Turkey, the host nation, is pushing a plan to increase the share of electricity in global energy use from 21 percent to 35 percent by 2035. The goal is to shift transportation and other sectors toward power generated by solar and wind.
The United States, the world's largest historic carbon polluter, is not expected to participate this year. It skipped last year's conference in Brazil. Niklas Höhne, co-founder of Germany's NewClimate Institute, noted that the absence of the U.S. complicates the financial aspects of the negotiations. "There's no other player who can jump in," Höhne said regarding the question of who pays for the transition.
Negotiators must also address funding for poorer nations to adapt to a warmer world and recover from climate damage. Brazil, which hosted the previous conference, released a voluntary roadmap this month for transitioning away from fossil fuels. Ana Toni, who served as CEO of last year's talks, emphasized that nations must stop subsidizing fossil fuels. The U.N. estimates these global subsidies reached $1.1 trillion this year. Harjeet Singh, founding director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, argued that resolving the issue of a fossil fuel phase-out is fundamental to dealing with the problem.
Climate scientists warn that the world is approaching tipping points, such as changes in ocean currents and the collapse of the Amazon rainforest. Johan Rockström, director of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, stated that the world has failed so far. Despite these challenges, experts point to the falling costs of renewable energy as a source of hope. Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said that governments and incumbent industries are the primary obstacles to faster action.
Youth activists at the conference expressed mixed feelings about progress. Ashley Lashley, a Barbados youth activist, said the science has become more alarming while political negotiations focus on tolerating failure. Qiyun Woo, a Singaporean environmentalist, described her generation as tired of living with wildfire smoke and devastating floods. Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, said the conference is taking place in a deeply fragmented world. He added that the U.S. will eventually have to be held accountable for the climate harms it has caused.
